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English to German: Politics, Populism and Power; Deutsche Bank Research; 1-2019 General field: Bus/Financial Detailed field: Economics
Source text - English Indeed, in 1980 there were very few workers relative to the overall population and they therefore had pricing power. Nearly four decades on, the ageing baby boomers have helped reverse this trend, which was supersized by China’s reintegration into the world economy and its own working age demographic overhang.
This abundant global labour supply over the past few decades has led to constant downward pressure on the price of labour. Indeed, workers in many countries have experienced a near three-decade freeze in their real wages, just as increased home and asset ownership, rising wealth and leverage combined to create a kind of money illusion. This may not have been felt acutely before the financial crisis, but it certainly was after it hit. At this point, wealth and leverage disappeared and workers looked more towards their pay packets. They were increasingly frustrated with what they saw and the long-term under-performance of wages was exposed.
Stagnating wages is one thing, but economic crises tend to leave large numbers of people unemployed and when this occurs, it is understandable that the population’s growing frustration can be channelled towards a populist agenda. The figures surrounding the financial crisis speak for themselves. Unemployment in the US peaked at ten per cent while in Europe, things were even more severe. Exacerbated by the sovereign debt crisis, about a quarter of the Spanish and Greek workforce found themselves out of work. Even in countries where the effects were less severe, such as the UK, real wages are barely higher than they were before the crisis.
Adding to discontent at the economic malaise, was the way in which technology and trade were changing the nature of work. This sped the decline of old industries, while legislators struggled to keep up with the rise of the ‘gig economy’ and its implications for labour relations.
It should therefore not be surprising that economic crises have been the overwhelming catalyst for populist revolts through history.
Translation - German Tatsächlich gab es 1980 im Verhältnis zur Gesamtbevölkerung nur sehr wenige Arbeitskräfte. Sie hatten daher Preissetzungsmacht. Knapp vier Jahrzehnte später haben die alternden Babyboomer zu einer Trendwende beigetragen, die durch die Wiedereingliederung Chinas in die Weltwirtschaft und dem dortigen demographischen Überhang an Erwerbsfähigen um ein Vielfaches verstärkt wurde.
Dieses reiche globale Angebot an Arbeitskräften hat in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten stetigen Druck auf die Löhne ausgeübt. Tatsächlich haben Arbeitnehmer in vielen Ländern genau dann einen fast dreißigjährigen Stillstand ihrer Reallöhne erlebt, als erhöhter Haus- und Vermögensbesitz, steigender Wohlstand und Verschuldungsgrad insgesamt eine Art Geldillusion erzeugten. Vor der Finanzkrise wurde das vielleicht nicht akut wahrgenommen, sicherlich aber seitdem die Krise zuschlug. Zu diesem Zeitpunkt verschwanden finanzielle Vermögen und Verschuldungshebel und Arbeitnehmer blickten mehr auf ihre Gehälter. Sie waren zunehmend frustriert über das, was sie sahen, und die langfristig unzureichende Lohnentwicklung wurde offensichtlich.
Stagnierende Löhne sind eine Sache, aber Wirtschaftskrisen bringen oft weitreichende Arbeitslosigkeit mit sich. Wenn das geschieht, kann die wachsende Frustration der Bevölkerung natürlich auf eine populistische Agenda gelenkt werden. Die Zahlen rund um die Finanzkrise sprechen für sich. In den USA erreichte die Arbeitslosenrate zehn Prozent, in Europa war die Situation noch gravierender. Verschärft durch die Staatsschuldenkrise waren etwa ein Viertel aller spanischen und griechischen Arbeitskräfte arbeitslos. Selbst in Ländern, in denen sich die Auswirkungen gemäßigter gestalteten, wie zum Beispiel in Großbritannien, sind die Reallöhne so gut wie nicht gestiegen.
Zur Unzufriedenheit über die wirtschaftliche Misere trug auch die Art und Weise bei, wie Technologie und Handel das Wesen der Arbeit selbst veränderten. Sie beschleunigte den Niedergang traditioneller Wirtschaftszweige, während sich Gesetzgeber schwertaten, mit der "Gig Economy" und ihren Auswirkungen auf die Beziehungen zwischen Arbeitgebern und Arbeitnehmern Schritt zu halten.
Es sollte daher nicht überraschen, dass populistische Revolten in der Geschichte vornehmlich von Wirtschaftskrisen ausgelöst wurden.
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